How I am changing my approach depending on the US election... ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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Hey Ryan,

 

You may have heard recently, but a little election is happening across the pond. 

And it’s a very important. 

Why? Because the US is still the global superpower and makes up about ~60% of the global stock market. 

Of course, there will also be huge impacts to healthcare, migration, taxes, the military and so on. But I’m going to be focusing on the stock market (shock, I know). 

When it comes to the stock market the US completely dominates. The next largest country, in terms of their contribution to the global stock market, is Japan who make up 6%.  

 

Fun fact - the largest US companies (think NVIDIA, Apple) are worth more than the total UK stock market. That’s the power and size of the US stock market. 

 

Who am I going to vote for? And how will the result impact my investing approach? Let me tell you. 

 

 

Who am I going to vote for?

No one. Because I am a UK citizen and cannot vote in the US election 😂

Interesting fact, in Australia if you don’t vote you get fined. This ensures everyone votes and means (you would hope, anyway) that people take more interest.  

 

How will the election result impact my investing approach?

If Kamala Harris wins, my plan is to continue to invest monthly into global index funds. No change to my approach. 

But if Donald Trump wins, my plan is to also continue to invest monthly into global index funds. Once again, no change to my approach. 

 

Sorry - probably a bit anticlimactic to what you wanted. 

 

Many other people and media outlets will spout extreme headlines such as ‘I’m selling everything if Harris wins as the economy will crash’ or ‘I’m moving overseas if Trump wins as he’ll destroy the country’. 

It’s clickbait bullshit. But of course people still click, which is why it continues to happen. 

 

But coming back to my personal approach of continuing to invest into global index funds - that is the reality of long term investing and my investing approach as a global index fund investor. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, whoever wins will have direct repercussions on the stock market. 

There will be impacts on taxes, tariffs and quotas, prices of domestic and international goods, employment and jobs, wages, and more, which will all feed into the stock market. 

But it’s all short term noise.

 

What really matters is that companies will continue to become more innovative and productive over time, and increase their corporate earnings over time. 

This is what contributes to the long term upward trend of the stock market. 

 

Which is why I simply sit back, ignore the noise, continue to automatically invest into global index funds each month, and hold for the long term. 

 Nothing difficult or special. And this is what will make me very wealthy over the long term. 

You definitely can make short term profits from these type of events, but it’s impossible to predict the future. Which is why I don’t even bother trying. 

 

So, Kamala or Donald? I’ll be following along and most importantly enjoying the memes along the way, but the result will have zero impact on my investing approach. 

 

Just like with the last US election. 

Just like with the recent UK election and change of government. 

Just like with the recent UK Labour budget. 

 

Stop waiting, start investing, keep investing for the long term. 

 

Thanks for reading. Feel free to reply and let me know your thoughts. 

And as always, if you have any questions on anything please let me know. 

 

I’ll leave you with something very sensible that I read today (from Finimize):

When markets become more volatile, it’s important to keep your long-term investment goals in mind and avoid making sudden, emotional decisions.

 

Want more 👇 

1. Preorder my book Stop Waiting, Start Investing. Out 26 November 2024! Preorder here

2. Join my next 4-week investing program. Starting January 2025. If you want to get involved, please respond to this email for more details 

3. Latest YouTube video - Vanguard portfolio update

4. Latest podcast episode - Investing for your children (or future children)

 

All the best,

Ryan

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